Future Forecast

The process of following stories can lead to surprising outcomes and great conversations. Such a situation recently arose as four Moorhead High football players committed to the University of Minnesota right as the school year was concluding. Doubtless, the opportunity to play in the Big 10 for the nearest of it's members was a significant factor in the decision for each of the young men.

The collection of decisions lead to an interesting thought - will they be as successful at Minnesota as they would be if they had stayed even closer to home and potentially been key factors for the Bison in the Mountain West?

It's an unanswerable question to answer in forecast, thus the crystal ball graphic, but intriguing to considering during these slow months of sports in the immediate area. Because now, even though the conference affiliations are disparate, both of the universities are competing for the same goals - bowl games & inclusion in the CFP.

So six or so years from now, ignoring the possibility of the transfer portal for all the local players, the question is which team will have had the better run as the calendar reaches the 2030s?

Aside from select games, very little scheduling is announced beyond an upcoming season so how many teams the B10 & MW will have and what the membership will be composed of are as much of a guess as predicting season outcomes this blindly but that is the reduction of what the conversation became - guessing season win/loss records and final results in the postseasons. 12-game seasons are pretty standard for the FBS, plus the bowl game or tournament opportunity so that will be number taken even as conferences and the NCAA continues to look for ways to squeeze more money in the form of games out of the 19-23 year olds. Since all of the local commits will be enjoying their final season of high school ball in 2026 the forecasting will begin with the second season for NDSU in MW. The inaugural season could be an eye-opener for the perennial FCS championship contenders or it could serve as more validation of the best of the FCS which JMU and the like had already been showing.

In either case, the learning curve will largely have been navigated by the time the Spuds reach Dinkytown so that won't play much of a factor in the considerations.

I think that's enough prefacing, here goes the crystal ball gazing

2027

NDSU -- 9-3, bowl game loss

Minnesota -- 6-6, bowl game loss

2028

NDSU -- 8-4, bowl game win

Minnesota -- 8-4, bowl game loss

2029

NDSU -- 11-1, CFP, first round loss

Minnesota -- 9-3, bowl game win

2030

NDSU -- 9-3, bowl game win

Minnesota -- 8-4, bowl game loss

2031

NDSU -- 10-2, bowl game win

Minnesota -- 8-4, bowl game win

2032

NDSU -- 7-5, bowl game loss

Minnesota -- 9-3, bowl game win

That many .500 or above seasons by Minnesota seems like a stretch but Fleck has managed to cobble-together a decent operation even as they continually have to face far superior programs. NDSU will not so often have to deal with the same lopsided struggle so the win totals should more often finish in favor of Fargo U. So it comes down to the postseason outcomes and the race to be the first to make the Playoff between the two. Minnesota again will have far more hurdles to clear in their mission to gain that level of relevance while the Bison just have to be a top outsider, not automatic but still easier.

As much as it can be answered now, NDSU seems like it will have a better run over those many seasons but as stated above, it is quite understandable by the Potatoes choose to head down 94 for at least the starts of their collegiate competitions. Having the chance to face several national championship contenders every season is a great way to get noticed by the League.

Now to wait and see what becomes of the young men's (and each teams') futures in Fargo and Minneapolis!